Short Abstract

The global pandemic caused by COVID-19, declared in March 2020, has had a dramatic impact on tourism, especially in Spain, as it was one of the first countries affected by the pandemic, as well as being one of the world’s biggest tourist destinations. Stock market values are responding to the evolution of the pandemic, especially in the case of tourist companies, so being able to quantify this relationship allows us to predict the effect of the pandemic on shares in the tourism sector, improving the response to the crisis. To this end, a model has been developed to predict the behaviour of shares in the Spanish tourism sector, according to the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic in the medium term. It has been confirmed that both the number of deaths and the number of cases diagnosed are good predictors of abnormal stock prices in the tourism sector.

Comments

Response to the reviewers

We would like to thank to ITSA 2022 Gran Canaria - 9th Biennial Conference, for deciding to submit to evaluation our work entitled “THE COVID-19 AND THE STOCK MARKET BEHAVIOUR OF THE TOURISM SECTOR IN SPAIN.”

With respect to the comments of the reviewers, we have proceeded to include the changes they have suggested to us in the new abstract, which has been uploaded again. With the changes made, based on the proposal of the reviewers, the paper has higher quality, thanks for the opportunity, rigor and excellence of the comments made by those referees. Specifically, the changes we have made are the following:

REVIEWER 1-SUGGESTION 1

The paper only provided the research on ASP of tourism sector or companies of stock market, yet during the COVID 19 pandemic the ASP or even the abnormal status of the financial market became “normal ” status as phenomenon, so without comparison between tourism sector and the rest part of stock market, the statistic calculating result of the stock market seems not sound and means not too many in tourism and financial research, since it is difficult to judge whether such result is the characteristics of tourism sector specifically, and what the difference of tourism sector is from the non tourism sector stock market.

MODIFICATION/JUSTIFICATION 1.1

At the beginning of the results section, it is specified that both the tourism ASP and the Ibex-35 ASP are analyzed, as a reference for the general evolution of the market. A clarifying sentence has been added, in case it was not clear at first.

The evolution of both variables is compared and it is concluded that “The analysis of these variables reflects the performance of the pandemic in Spain, with negative values in the periods of higher incidence of the COVID-19 disease, with variations in the tourism ASP being more pronounced than those of the market are.

The negative impact of the beginning of the pandemic on the ASP stands out, with a greater incidence in the case of tourism companies, reaching negative ASPs of -48%, when the market did not fall below -35.76 %”.

REVIEWER 1-SUGGESTION 2

The detail model or regression equation with variables and coefficients, and the structure do not appear in this paper. So it is difficult for reader to judge the academic significance of this paper. And more important, why did the author apply the model, and what kind evidence support such hypothesis model?

MODIFICATIO/JUSTIFICATION 1.2.

We have added the equation of the applied dynamic regression model.

An explanatory paragraph has also been added with the reason for choosing that model.

In addition, the abstract includes a paragraph specifying the process of selecting the most appropriate model: "a massive screening of all possible dynamic models with explanatory variable and with an error structure modeled by an ARIMA (p,d,q) process was performed, for which parameters p, d and q were computationally varied over a wide range of values. Box test. The stationarity of the series was confirmed by means of the Dickey-Fuller test. After this filtering of the models that proved to be suitable, the most parsimonious ones were selected, using the criterion of the minimum AIC, as a measure of the goodness of fit of the regressions obtained by the method of maximum likelihood".

REVIEWER 1-SUGGESTION 3

Are there any tourism statistic data or variables (e.g., tourist flow, consumption, accommodation, or even tourism satellite account data) applied in this.

MODIFICATIO/JUSTIFICATION 1.3.

The objective of this study does not include the analysis of this type of variables. But it will be considered for future researches.

REVIEWER 1-SUGGESTION 4

The data source and the character are not provided clearly, e.g., how many tourism companies consisting tourism sector of the stock market, how large component or percentage is that in the whole stock market, what is the detail statistic structure of these tourism companies composed the whole tourism sector of stock market?

MODIFICATIO/JUSTIFICATION 1.4.

ALL companies in the sector listed on the Spanish stock exchange have been included. Information has been added in this regard, including the name of the companies considered

REVIEWER 2-SUGGESTION 1

A further differentiation between the effects of the different criteria would be welcome. MODIFICATION/JUSTIFICATION 2.1. We don't quite understand what you mean by "different criteria". In this research, a single criterion or model "dynamic regression model" has been applied, giving rise to two different ones, one with each explanatory variable. The fundamental results are exposed, without being able to extend more, for reasons of extension limit.

REVIEWER 2-SUGGESTION 2

English quality is acceptable. Some phrases seem to have gone wrong: ‘Although the growing demand of work activities outside of home-office settings has been unacknowledged by the industry, yet there remains limited research’

Probably meant is: Although the growing demand of work activities outside of home-office settings has been acknowledged by the industry, yet there remains limited research

MODIFICATION/JUSTIFICATION 2.2.

There must be an error, because that phrase does not appear in our abstract, nor does it have anything to do with our study.

We await the final decision, which we hope will be satisfactory in light of all the proposed changes that have been made by the authors.

Best regards,

The authors

Type of Submission

Paper Presentation

Location

Gran Canaria

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THE COVID-19 AND THE STOCK MARKET BEHAVIOUR OF THE TOURISM SECTOR IN SPAIN.

Gran Canaria

The global pandemic caused by COVID-19, declared in March 2020, has had a dramatic impact on tourism, especially in Spain, as it was one of the first countries affected by the pandemic, as well as being one of the world’s biggest tourist destinations. Stock market values are responding to the evolution of the pandemic, especially in the case of tourist companies, so being able to quantify this relationship allows us to predict the effect of the pandemic on shares in the tourism sector, improving the response to the crisis. To this end, a model has been developed to predict the behaviour of shares in the Spanish tourism sector, according to the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic in the medium term. It has been confirmed that both the number of deaths and the number of cases diagnosed are good predictors of abnormal stock prices in the tourism sector.

https://docs.lib.purdue.edu/itsa/ITSA2022/ITSA2022/38