The economic impact of global uncertainty and security threats on international tourism.

Location

Gran Canaria

Participation

Attend the conference at Gran Canaria in person.

Type of Submission

Paper Presentation

Short Abstract

Analyzing and monitoring the evolution of tourism demand is crucial, and tourist security will have an irrefutable part to play in the growth of the sector. The novelty of this research is that we estimate for the first time variations in tourism demand and gross value added stemming from changes in security threats and global uncertainty Firstly, we use a gravity model to predict variations in tourist arrivals caused by changes in terrorism, corruption and economic policy uncertainty under different scenarios, and secondly, we use inter-country input-output tables to calculate the impact on value added for 69 countries, and 7 aggregated regions (Africa, Asia, Europe, Latin America, the Near East, Oceania, and the USA & Canada). We provide estimates of variations in tourism demand and value added under different scenarios, ranging from total security to maximum values of insecurity and uncertainty at country and regional levels.

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The economic impact of global uncertainty and security threats on international tourism.

Gran Canaria

Analyzing and monitoring the evolution of tourism demand is crucial, and tourist security will have an irrefutable part to play in the growth of the sector. The novelty of this research is that we estimate for the first time variations in tourism demand and gross value added stemming from changes in security threats and global uncertainty Firstly, we use a gravity model to predict variations in tourist arrivals caused by changes in terrorism, corruption and economic policy uncertainty under different scenarios, and secondly, we use inter-country input-output tables to calculate the impact on value added for 69 countries, and 7 aggregated regions (Africa, Asia, Europe, Latin America, the Near East, Oceania, and the USA & Canada). We provide estimates of variations in tourism demand and value added under different scenarios, ranging from total security to maximum values of insecurity and uncertainty at country and regional levels.

https://docs.lib.purdue.edu/itsa/ITSA2022/ITSA2022/26