Forecasting Freight Logistic Needs and INDOT Plans

Authors

Ananth V. Iyer, Purdue UniversityFollow
Thomas Brady, Purdue University CalumetFollow
Steven R. Dunlop, Purdue UniversityFollow
Dutt J. Thakkar, Purdue UniversityFollow
Saichandar Naini, Purdue UniversityFollow
Srinath Jayan, Purdue UniversityFollow
Suraj Vasu, Purdue UniversityFollow
Sanjayraj Mohanraj, Purdue UniversityFollow
Janani Srinvasan, Purdue UniversityFollow

Recommended Citation

Iyer, A. V., Brady, T., Dunlop, S. R., Thakkar, D. J., Naini, S., Jayan, S., Vasu, S., Mohanraj, S., & Srinvasan, J. (2022). Forecasting freight logistic needs and INDOT plans (Joint Transportation Research Program Publication No. FHWA/IN/JTRP-2022/08). West Lafayette, IN: Purdue University. https://doi.org/10.5703/1288284317372

DOI

10.5703/1288284317372

Abstract

This project focused on forecasting freight logistics needs and developing and analyzing capacity plans for INDOT to consider. The forecast timeframe ranges from the 2020 to 2045; the commodities considered are those used in the FHWA framework. We considered five SSP (Shared Socio-Economic Pathways) scenarios that are in sync with those used by the IPCC (International Protocol for Climate Change). We also use the IPCC forecasts of world GDP and FHWA forecasts to develop county-level freight forecasts by commodity. A survey of industry participants, primarily in manufacturing, suggests that Indiana industries are tied to the rest of the country and the world for supply of inputs as well as for demand markets. Finally, we focus on three different industries—the recreational vehicle (RV) industry in Elkhart County, the furniture industry in Dubois County, and the Honda plant in Decatur County—to illustrate the impact of bill of materials and growth forecasts on forecasted congestion and potential capacity mitigation. Our results suggest that proactive capacity planning can enable INDOT to anticipate and ease congestion and ensure continued economic competitiveness for Indiana industries.

Report Number

FHWA/IN/JTRP-2022/08

Comments

The models used to forecast freight logistic needs and develop and analyze capacity plans for INDOT can be found at https://purr.purdue.edu/publications/4131/1

Keywords

freight logistics, infrastructure planning, ramp capacity, freight forecast, industry case study, industry survey

SPR Number

4508

Performing Organization

Joint Transportation Research Program

Sponsoring Organization

Indiana Department of Transportation

Publisher Place

West Lafayette, IN

Date of this Version

2022