Runway incursions, events in which an aircraft, vehicle, or person is located on a runway surface without authorization, continue to be a constant threat to aviation safety. Previously identified on the ‘‘Most Wanted’’ list of aviation safety issues by the National Transportation Safety Board, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has spent significant amounts of money and effort to address runway incursions. Little empirical evidence has been collected on the effectiveness of such efforts. Moreover, the data that are available provide a confusing landscape of contradicting findings. Some FAA publications claim that runway incursions are decreasing while the evidence provided in such documents support the contrary. News headlines tout decreases in runway incursions while briefly stating that they are increasing in recent years. The purpose of this quantitative causal-comparative and correlational study was to provide an improved understanding of trends in runway incursions based on statistical analysis rather than on generalizations. The findings of this study indicated that from 2001 to 2017 runway incursions appear to have a strong, positive correlation with ascending years, i.e., are increasing over time (p = 0.995, p < 0.001). Each type of incursion severity category (A, B, C, and D) is further analyzed. Also, analysis for the last five and ten years was conducted to focus on more recent trends. Suggestions for future research are also provided.
Ison, David C.
"Empirical Analysis of Trends in Runway Incursions in the United States from 2001 to 2017,"
Journal of Aviation Technology and Engineering:
1, Article 1.
Available at: https://doi.org/10.7771/2159-6670.1197