Research Synthesis of Predicting Part 135 Accident Probability in Aviation: How the Bayesian Brain Ignores Declining Safety Standards

Authors

Jonathan R. Clarke, Central Queensland University, AustraliaFollow

Author Background

Jonathan Clarke is a retired Part 135 commercial pilot with 10,000 flight hours. He earned a Bachelor of Aviation (Human Factors) degree from University of Western Sydney (UWS), and a Master of Educational Neuroscience with Distinction from Central Queensland University (CQU). He has also earned a Graduate Certificate in Adult and Tertiary Education from CQU. Clarke is interested in aviation safety in Part 135 operations and the potential for educational neuroscience to provide training interventions.

Abstract

Technological innovation has had an enormous effect on safety in aviation. However, in Part 135 operations, where technology is not as ubiquitous, the accident rates have plateaued. Human error is constantly misrepresented as being responsible for 70–80 percent of accidents, when it is clearly only one of several contributing factors. In commercial aviation, all accidents should be considered organizational failures, because by definition all defensive layers have been breached. Organizational failure, as it affects safety, should be identifiable and predictable from organizational behavior. Inevitably, in the aftermath of accidents the warning signs of poor behavior are seemingly obvious, yet there is little evidence that the widespread and mandated practice of human factors training is having any preventive effect. The insidious nature of unsafe practices masks the hidden dangers of incremental decline in safety standards and silences the alarm bells.

Recommended Citation

Clarke, Jonathan R. (2025) "Research Synthesis of Predicting Part 135 Accident Probability in Aviation: How the Bayesian Brain Ignores Declining Safety Standards," Journal of Aviation Technology and Engineering: Vol. 14: Iss. 2, Article 4.
Available at: https://doi.org/10.7771/2159-6670.1340