Date
8-4-2022 12:00 AM
Poster Abstract
Mounting evidence suggests that geographic ranges of tree species worldwide are shifting under global environmental changes. Little is known, however, about whether and how this substantial migration of tree species may cause an overall type of forest as an ensemble of one or more tree species to migrate out of its geographic range. Here, using ground-sourced forest inventory data from 596,282 sample plots with repeated measurements, we classified forested regions in North America into eight biomes and 43 forest types, and further quantified forest migration – the shift in the geographic range of these forest types over the past 50 years. Across the continent, forest types on average migrated 86.5 km·decade-1, more than three times as fast as the average of their constituent tree species (28.8 km·decade-1). In boreal and the Great Lakes regions, forest migration outpaced tree species range shift by more than 200 km·decade-1. We posit, based on the portfolio theory, that this marked difference is triggered by a predominantly positive covariance of tree species ranges and the change of species relative abundance under global change. These findings provide an urgently needed scientific basis for a new paradigm of adaptive forest management and conservation in mitigating the impacts of rapid forest migration.
Forests Migrated Faster Than Trees Across North America
Mounting evidence suggests that geographic ranges of tree species worldwide are shifting under global environmental changes. Little is known, however, about whether and how this substantial migration of tree species may cause an overall type of forest as an ensemble of one or more tree species to migrate out of its geographic range. Here, using ground-sourced forest inventory data from 596,282 sample plots with repeated measurements, we classified forested regions in North America into eight biomes and 43 forest types, and further quantified forest migration – the shift in the geographic range of these forest types over the past 50 years. Across the continent, forest types on average migrated 86.5 km·decade-1, more than three times as fast as the average of their constituent tree species (28.8 km·decade-1). In boreal and the Great Lakes regions, forest migration outpaced tree species range shift by more than 200 km·decade-1. We posit, based on the portfolio theory, that this marked difference is triggered by a predominantly positive covariance of tree species ranges and the change of species relative abundance under global change. These findings provide an urgently needed scientific basis for a new paradigm of adaptive forest management and conservation in mitigating the impacts of rapid forest migration.
Comments
2022 FNR Poster Competition, Graduate Research, Honorable Mention [tie]