Design of a system for analysis and forecast of highway revenues

Amiy Varma, Purdue University

Abstract

Increased emphasis is being placed on improved financial control and planning within state transportation agencies due to continuing shifts in revenue sources, escalation of construction, maintenance and operating costs, instability of revenue bases, and mandates of the Intermodal Surface Transportation Efficiency Act (ISTEA) of 1991. This has underscored the importance of analysis, estimation, and forecast of highway revenues. The present research focused on the problems associated with highway revenue analysis, highway financing mechanisms, and highway revenue forecasting. A detailed review of highway revenues was conducted and the problems of instability, inequity, and inefficiency with existing highway financing mechanisms were examined. A reorientation of highway user charges was proposed to address these problems. A long-term highway revenue forecasting methodology was developed with particular emphasis on the ease of data input, simplicity of internal model relationships, flexibility of incorporating a variety of user charge mechanisms, and responsiveness to changes in socioeconomic, technological, energy, environmental, and legislative factors. The adopted methodology also addressed the issues of adequacy, stability, equity, and efficiency of the revenue bases and tax rates. A set of models and procedures were developed to apply the proposed methodology to Indiana. The forecasts and model results further endorsed the need for a reorientation of tax structure and rates for the 21st century. Another methodology based on the long-term methodology and decomposition method was proposed for short-term highway revenue forecasting and applied to Indiana. The uses of highway revenue analysis and forecasts for highway programming, gap analysis, impact analysis, cost-allocation studies, project scheduling, and effectiveness of tax structure and rates and management systems were identified and examined.

Degree

Ph.D.

Advisors

Sinha, Purdue University.

Subject Area

Civil engineering

COinS