Potential returns and constraints to the adoption of new technologies in the mechanized rainfed region (eastern vertisols) of the Sudan

Mohamed K Habash, Purdue University

Abstract

Since the establishment of the Mechanized Crop Production Scheme (MCPS) in the 1940's, almost five million hectares of land have been brought under cultivation in the vertisols. The development of the MCPS has taken the form of an extensive farming system. The prevalent cropping pattern is a sorghum monoculture on large scale farms with few purchased inputs. One consequence has been cereal yield declines. The long run potential of the region, which was once considered the "breadbasket of the Arab world", has been challenged due to the low and falling cereal yields. Even though there has not been much agronomic research, there have been various efforts to produce new sorghum cultivars. Technologies to be evaluated here consist of improved sorghum cultivars, an improved cereal crop-rotation, and the use of chemical fertilizers. This study estimates the potential farm-level economic impact of these various new land-augmenting technologies. The results for the agronomic improvements and the new cultivars should be useful to future research planning in the region. Base model results confirm farm survey findings of farmers' non-adoption of the improved sorghum cultivars. Their lack of adoption is apparently due to the perceived 35% market-price discount below the price of local varieties. Either a reduction of the price differential to 16% or a 29% increase in yields of the new cultivars is needed before the new cultivars would be introduced by farmers according to model results. Intensive technologies of fertilization and crop-rotation increase farm income by 29% over the income achieved under tradition farm practices, according to model results. At the "real" (street rate) exchange rate for imports, chemical fertilizer use is not sufficiently profitable to be utilized on these vertisols. Farmers' perceptions about sesame yields appear to be a major constraint impeding the adoption of the crop-rotation in the region. The MCPS has been receiving substantial governmental support in the form of subsidized credit and low land rental fees. The removal of the credit and the elimination of the land subsidies have little impact on increasing the adoption rate of these technologies, according to the model results. Over time as land supply becomes more inelastic, model results do show an increasing adoption of the more intensive technologies even at current prices.

Degree

Ph.D.

Advisors

Sanders, Purdue University.

Subject Area

Agricultural economics

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