Farmer behavior and new agricultural technologies in the rainfed agriculture of southern Niger: A stochastic programming analysis
Abstract
Agricultural production in Southern Niger is precarious and occurs in a fragile environment characterized by enormous rainfall variability, poor soil fertility, and large price and yield risks. Farmers have developed strategies of coping with the risks of crop production in this risky environment. Farmers make decisions sequentially throughout the season in order to adapt to stochastic events. An understanding of how farmer behavior affects choice of agricultural technologies is important for technology development programs. The specific objectives of this study are to evaluate sequential decision making of smallholder farmers in southern Niger and to determine how this affects adoption of agricultural technologies. The study determined: (a) the farm-level impacts of new agricultural technologies under five alternative rainfall scenarios. The technologies evaluated are early maturing cultivars, and improved cultivars at higher planting density and moderate levels of chemical fertilization: (b) the returns to labor under alternative technologies and weather patterns; (c) the impacts of a cereal price floor in good rainfall years when farmers have more cereal to sell. A discrete stochastic programming model was used to incorporate risk and to capture farmers' sequential decisions. The empirical model was validated against observed farmer behavior. The results showed that (a) farmers adopted early maturing cultivars in low rainfall years but used late season cultivars in higher rainfall years. But carrying a portfolio of cultivars, farmers were able to respond to ensuing stochastic weather patterns. (b) Adoption of the technologies increased household nutritional positions, expected total farm incomes, and returns to labor. Total income estimates show that with adoption of agricultural technologies farmers can make between 42 and 57 percent higher than the rural wage rate. Moreover, in absolute terms, agricultural incomes are low even with agricultural technologies. (c) The adoption of early maturing varieties reduced the variability of incomes received by farmers. (d) A cereal price floor of 50 CFA/kg. has no effect on choice of agricultural technologies. Rather, it increases expected total returns to agriculture. (e) The initial liquidity position of the farmer influences adoption of agricultural technologies.
Degree
Ph.D.
Advisors
Sanders, Purdue University.
Subject Area
Agricultural economics
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