A MICROCOMPUTER DECISION AID FOR SWINE PRODUCERS
Abstract
The objective of this study was to develop a decision-making model to assist swine producers in evaluating alternative plans concerning the organization and size of their swine enterprise. The model was designed for use on a microcomputer. The development of the model was guided by the ideas and concerns of research and extension farm management and swine management specialists as well as swine producers. Producer input was sought at several stages of development to insure data availability and "user friendliness" in operation. Information is provided by the model on the impact of swine enterprise investment and managerial changes on profit, cash flow, costs of production, and net worth. Types of changes which can be evaluated include: building investment and dis-investment, enterprise size and growth, production system changes, feed rations, intensity of scheduling and building use, and prices. The model is presented to users through a computerized input form and written input booklet. The planning period is four years. The first year attempts to duplicate the current situation. Changes enter the analysis in the second year. The modified swine operation is then simulated for an additional two years. The output includes a swine enterprise plan description, annual profitability, balance sheets, and quarterly reports of profit, cash flow, hog flows, and feed usage. Output can be viewed on the computer terminal or in printed form and can be saved for later use. Three tests of validity were performed on the model using swine management specialists, agricultural extension agents, and swine producers. The first test aided in developing the format of the input and output forms and provided information on data availability. The second and third tests used survey questionnaires to evaluate the model for ease of use and value for decision making. Swine producers indicated that the model is valid, that they would like to use the model in evaluating changes to their swine operations and that they would recommend the model to neighbors. Two example uses of the model were demonstrated. The first determined that an addition to a finishing building would increase profit $13,906 per year for the case farm. The second demonstrated a farm managment research application in evaluating the intensity of use of high and low-investment swine facilities producing approximately 1780 market hogs per year. The research example showed that swine producers changing from low-investment facilities operated at a partial-use rate (four farrowings per year) to high-investment facilities would need to operate the high-investment facilities using a full-use rate (seven farrowings per year) to remain competitive.
Degree
Ph.D.
Subject Area
Agricultural economics
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