AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC AND SOCIODEMOGRAPHIC DETERMINANTS OF HOUSEHOLD FOOD CONSUMPTION IN OUAGADOUGOU, BURKINA FASO (URBAN CONSUMPTION, AIDS MODEL)

KIMSEYINGA SAVADOGO, Purdue University

Abstract

Chronic food production deficits since the early 1970s have prompted policymakers of Burkina Faso to emphasize technological research to increase the production of the most-consumed locally-grown cereals: sorghum, millet and corn. It was observed that consumers, in particular urban, were developing preferences for cereals that are mostly imported, rice and wheat. The urban population constitutes a major prospective market for any rural surplus production that would result from technological advances. The major objective of this study was to estimate demand relationships among food items in Ouagadougou, Burkina, using household budgets. To identify the patterns of household food consumption, a demand system was specified with prices, income and household demographics. The almost ideal demand system was used as a theoretical basis for the model formulation. Prices, income, household composition, education, marital status and urbanization were jointly important in explaining household expenditure allocations. Both local and imported cereals responded positively to an income increase. However, incremental income changes would lead low income households to consume more local cereals than high income households; the latter would consume more wheat and rice than the former. This result indicated that an income redistribution from high to low income consumers would increase aggregate consumption of the local cereals. The household model was then used to forecast the levels of urban grain demand under alternative income and demographic scenarios. Confronted with projected rural marketable production, the demand levels implied by the household model suggested large national deficits for both wheat-rice and sorghum-millet-corn if no technological growth occurred. With increased production due to advances in technology, the urban demand levels did not exhaust the rural surplus of local cereals, but deficits persisted in the rice-wheat sector. The results underscored the importance of technological research since Burkina could become self-sufficient in at least the production of sorghum, millet and corn. The results also suggested the need for appropriate policies if such technological growth was to be sustained. In particular, a policy of favorable relative prices for the producers of local cereals was necessary. This requires a deliberate move away from the current policy of wheat and rice price subsidies for consumers. (Abstract shortened with permission of author.)

Degree

Ph.D.

Subject Area

Agricultural economics

COinS