REDUCED HERBICIDE AVAILABILITY: AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS ON UNITED STATES AGRICULTURE
Abstract
An agricultural sector model was used to analyze the economic impacts on U.S. agriculture resulting from possible restrictions on the use of selected herbicides. A mathematical programming model was formulated. The model contained price responsive domestic, export, and stock demand equations as well as price responsive regional land and labor supply equations. Agricultural processing activities were included. The base year was 1976. Seven scenarios of U.S. agriculture based on different herbicide restrictions were analyzed. Regional changes in crop yields and production costs associated with changes in herbicide availability were estimated. These estimates were based on a survey of weed scientists in the major crop producing states in the U.S. and on numerous published and unpublished sources. The impacts of possible bans on herbicide use on prices and production of agricultural commodities, disappearance, wages, land rents, regional production, and social welfare were analyzed. If some herbicide substitutes were available and shifts in cropping patterns were possible, the impacts on U.S. agriculture were relatively small even if the use of several classes of herbicides were restricted. However, there could be rather large shifts in regional crop production. If the use of all herbicides were restricted, the impacts on U.S. agriculture were more severe. Most crop prices increased by 10 to 16 percent. Corn, wheat, and soybean production decreased by 4, 18 and 14 percent, respectively. Regional cash rents increased by 16 to 66 percent. The value of exports decreased by 12 percent. Cropping patterns changed for every crop in every region. The social welfare indicators suggested that producers would gain relative to consumers but overall there would be a net social loss. The benefits of herbicide use to control weeds can be substantial and are distributed throughout the economy in terms of more abundant and lower priced food supplies. While the potential health and environmental hazards of some herbicides may be significant, policy-makers and scientists should continue their efforts to more fully assess the economic and safety implications for farmers, consumers, and society in general before decisions are made to restrict or cancel herbicide use.
Degree
Ph.D.
Subject Area
Agricultural economics
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