ENERGY PLANNING FOR PUERTO RICO: A SYSTEMS MODELING APPROACH
Abstract
This thesis presents various models for energy planning for the year 2000 in Puerto Rico. Puerto Rico depends on imported oil for 99.9% of its energy needs. The criterion used when determining the capacity expansion for electricity generation has always been cost minimization. The island has many promising energy sources such as biomass, photovoltaics, OTEC (Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion), and WPS (Wind Power Systems). Biomass as a fuel for electricity generation is cost competitive even with nuclear energy and helps in minimizing the fuel importation while creating more direct and indirect jobs than any other alternative. Renewable energy sources such as photovoltaics, OTEC, and WPS are pollution free, and they do not require fuel importation. These energy sources present some trade-offs in cost, pollution level, and fuel importation, which are studied. Uncertainty in future demand is taken into account using a Stochastic Mathematical Model for a capacity expansion model. Elasticity of demand is also considered. The concept of shortage cost is introduced in some models, which are intended to meet the demand that is profitable. Integer variables (0,1) which represent the possible electricity generation plants are defined so that fixed cost (investment cost) can be more realistically considered. The Best Compromise Solution using the Global Criterion Method for the multiple objectives, cost minimization, fuel imports minimization, and pollution level minimization, is presented. Graphic representations of the different trade-offs among the three objectives and the employment level are also shown. The proven alternatives such as coal-steam plants, nuclear plants, and biomass steam plants could have political constraints. New technologies such as photovaltaics, OTEC, and WPS possess many uncertainties. Should the cost of these alternatives be less than the electricity generated using oil, a combination of these energy sources would represent the best alternative to solve Puerto Rico's electricity needs. Nuclear energy, biomass steam, coal, steam, photovoltaics, and OTEC could represent better alternatives than oil-steam plants.
Degree
Ph.D.
Subject Area
Industrial engineering
Off-Campus Purdue Users:
To access this dissertation, please log in to our
proxy server.