A STUDY OF THE EFFECTS OF U.S. PORT CAPACITY CONSTRAINTS ON NATIONAL AND WORLD GRAIN SHIPMENTS. (VOLUMES I AND II)
Abstract
World grain trade has continued to grow rapidly since the large Russian purchases began in the early Seventies. Recent trade projections indicate that the U.S. grain exports will continue to grow. The U.S. grain transportation infrastructure has concommitantly come under increasing difficulty in its ability to handle this increased grain flow. The objectives of this thesis, then, were to: (1) provide systematic information on the role of ports in the grain transportation system and (2) provide specific information concerning the impact of port capacity constraints on domestic and international grain movements and costs. To this end, a quarterly time period, three grain (corn, soybean, and wheat) mutually capacitated network transshipment model of the world using 1985 export projections as the base was developed for the analysis. Ship loading capacity was used to determine the maximum level of export capacity permitted at 11 port regions selected as the U.S. export points. The use of truck, barge, rail and ocean modes of transportation, storage, closing down of the Great Lakes in winter, and acknowledgement of different harvest times of the foreign grain producers were included features of the model. Major model results include the recognition that, given the model's assumptions, minor port congestion will occur along the Gulf and East Coast. Relief of this port constraint along the East or Gulf Coast by expanding loading capacity will reduce the export volume of the Great Lakes and draw volume away from other ports along the same coast which has the expanded port. The change in transportation rates has more affect on changing grain flow direction than do increases in world demand. The distributional impacts of the change in port capacity were also measured. An increase in capacity raised the domestic transportation cost and resulted in a lower cost to the world grain importers, and caused a shift in the storage patterns and the transportation bill borne by each state. The thesis concluded with a summary of the model's results and recommendations for policy and future research.
Degree
Ph.D.
Subject Area
Agricultural economics
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