SOME FORMAL METHODS IN POLICY FORMATION
Abstract
The first of the five parts of the dissertation develops a mathematical theory of problem solving in a dynamic environment. It is shown how a sequence of actions may be chosen from a set of feasible actions to achieve a desired goal. The selection process is augmented by a model of intuition in a problem solving environment. The second part of the thesis extends this theory with a rigorous mathematical treatment of problem solving. Several problem solvers found in the Artificial Intelligence literature are shown to be special cases of this theory. In the third part, the theory is applied to the synthesis of economic policy. Both statistical and modelling strategies are analyzed and similarities between the economic policy problem and the policy synthesis environment discussed. An outline of an operating system is then presented. Next, an application of this theory to auditing policy, in particular to the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act of 1977, is developed and the value of formal analysis demonstrated. Finally, multiagent planning systems are considered in both team and game theoretic circumstances.
Degree
Ph.D.
Subject Area
Economic theory
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