THE IMPACT OF THE HIGH YIELDING VARIETIES ON THE IMPORT REQUIREMENTS OF THE LDC'S: THE CASE OF WHEAT

RAFAEL POSADA, Purdue University

Abstract

Two important facts have been observed on the international scene during the last two decades. First, the international pattern of grain trade has been changing, with the source of imports shifting from the less-developed countries (LDC's) to the developed countries (DC's). Second, new improved varieties for wheat and rice have been developed at the new International Centers. These varieties have been adopted by the less-developed countries and in some cases have had a dramatic impact on the domestic production of these grains in the adopting countries. This dissertation reports an attempt to understand the adoption of improved varieties for one of these grains, wheat, and to analyze the impact on the grain import requirements of the less-developed countries. The main objective is to explore the economic and environmental conditions which affect the adoption of these new varieties and therefore to gain some insight into the conditions under which the substitution of domestic production for imports is more plausible. The eventual implications for international trade in wheat is also of considerable interest. The conceptual model consists of two parts. The first part is a supply and demand model for agricultural innovations which is designed to explain the adoption of the improved varieties across countries. The second part of the model is a supply-demand model for trade which specifically incorporates human capital and policy variables into the model. A model which explains the impact of technological change in a closed economy is explored as part of this analysis. An important conclusion of the analysis is that the increased output from adopting the improved variations has to date been used to increase per capita availability and not to reduce imports. However, the high yielding varieties have the potential to reduce import demand for wheat by the adopting countries. The realization of this potential will be subject to the availability of varieties adaptable to the natural endowment and the strength of the political power of producers to make effective their demand for new technologies and to create the appropriate economic environment to adopt them. It will also depend on how fast per capita incomes increase in the less-developed countries. The impact on intraregional trade appears to be more limited.

Degree

Ph.D.

Subject Area

Agricultural economics

COinS