AN ANALYSIS OF THE POTENTIAL IMPACT OF LOCAL INDUSTRIAL CHANGE
Abstract
The purposes of this study are (a) to explore a methodology for the construction of regional input-output systems based on modified national industry coefficients and available secondary source data; (b) to apply this methodology to a particular non-urban low-income area; and (c) to delineate the area employment and income potentials of certain activity changes under the specified industrial complex.A 33-sector input-output model (8 agricultural, 2 mining, 10 manufacturing, and 7 service and trade sectors with final demand allocated among maintenance construction, new plant and equipment, inventory change, personal consumption, local and state government, and net ex- ternal trade) was constructed for the 1958 relations of a ten-county rural area in southern Indiana. Input relations were developed from the working papers underlying the 1947 BLS and 1955 USDA national tables in light of various secondary data controls established for the area. Included among major modifications of the national coefficients were adjustments for employment-size-of-establishment and payroll-per- paid-employee.Input and inverse coefficient matrices, direct, indirect and induced changes in income and employment (man-years) resulting from possible final demand changes for each of 27 endogenous sectors, and the corresponding aggregate income and employment multipliers are presented.Because of empirical problems in the projection of interregional trade flows, domestic impacts were not delineated separate from gross impacts. The study is largely descriptive and exploratory in nature. The major conclusions are that: (1) More meaningful results will obtain if general regional structural analyses are empirically directed toward areas consisting not of broad rural areas per se but of (a) an urban center, and (b) a rural periphery; and (2) imputed regional de- tailed structures based on national production relationships and adjusted under regional controls have promise of low relative cost as well as sufficient validity for most regional economic analytical and policy purposes.
Degree
Ph.D.
Subject Area
Agricultural economics
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