“Going for it” on fourth down: Organizational risk -taking in the National Football League

David W Lehman, Purdue University

Abstract

This study examined the effect of feedback timing relative to a deadline on the performance-risk relationship proposed by behavioral theory; the context was the typically risky fourth down conversion attempts by teams in the National Football League. Analysis of 24,357 fourth down plays from 1,521 regular season games during 2000-05 indicated that feedback timing moderates the performance-risk relationship such that, for a given level of performance, teams were more likely to "go for it" closer to the end of the game. This study also provides a constructive replication of the performance-risk relationship, addressing several methodological concerns of prior studies.

Degree

Ph.D.

Advisors

Ramanujam, Purdue University.

Subject Area

Management

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