Shaping the Final Frontier: Exploring the Dynamics of Cislunar Space Development
Abstract
The last 15 years have brought exciting developments to the space industry, but confusion about the state and trajectory of the space industry remains widespread. The lack of new milestones in human spaceflight, for example, leaves many wondering why it’s taking over 50 years for mankind to return to the moon. Although countless advancements have been made in the space industry since the last trip to the moon in 1972, nothing quite captures the public eye like visible manned space flight milestones. Today, policy makers and the public want to know why the space industry seems to grow so slowly in some areas and how this growth could be constructively shaped in the future. Specifically, this work addresses questions of how taxpayer funds and government policies could accelerate the development of a robust, sustainable space economy. The efforts of national space agencies have laid the foundations for today’s space economy and continue to impact it today, but the expense of certain projects like NASA’s SLS rocket have some, including NASA Inspector General Paul Martin, asking the question “what might happen if those funds could be used on more efficient alternatives?” Others ask how worried should we be about space debris, and how fast will we see new industry develop in space?.To answer such far-reaching questions, this research utilizes system dynamics modeling to produce a high level view of the relationships that drive the space industry. Historical trends are explored and assessed for their role in the future development of the industry. Financial forecasts and expected developments from major capital investors and research institutions are also utilized to inform the model. Once a baseline system model was created and confirmed to match historical data and expected trends from 2015-2040, several government funding scenarios and other policies were tested for their predicted influence across the industry. Sample impacts of these policies include amounts of space debris generated, cost to launch 1kg of payload to LEO, and number of satellites serviced in orbit. This model provides a tool for many types of problems to be studied, but the specific policies selected focused on space debris creation, emerging satellite industry funding, and SLS funding.
Degree
M.S.
Advisors
DeLaurentis, Purdue University.
Subject Area
Political science
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