Analysis of the Relative Risks Associated with Firearms as an Active Shooter Mitigation Technique on School Campuses
Abstract
The concept of an armed responsible citizen serving as a mitigation factor for an active shooter is one that has been studied and argued at length. Researchers at Purdue University have used computer-based simulations to argue that firearms in the hands of school resource officers (SROs) or teachers can decrease the response time and the number of casualties in an active shooter incident (ASI). However, detractors argue that introduction of firearms on school campuses increases the risk of injury for students and staff. This project is focused on a comparative risk assessment of ASIs and firearms used as a mitigation technique on school campuses. There are three primary data sources used for the study: the FBI’s study and definition of ASIs, the K-12 School Shootings Database from the Center for Homeland Defense and Security, and Everytown Research’s compilation of firearm mishandling incidents on school campuses. The project uses these data sources to estimate risks for both school shootings and firearm mishandling incidents, perform statistical analysis, and create a system dynamics model to simulate primary and secondary risks associated with firearms on school campuses. The project rejected the null hypothesis that there is no difference between ASI induced casualty counts and accidental induced. The first alternate is confirmed by a negative binomial regression that shows that SROs and unarmed civilians are significant negative predictors of casualties in school firearm related incidents. The second alternate hypothesis that immediate first responders decrease response times and potential casualties is confirmed by t-tests that compared mean casualties. The simulation demonstrated that the secondary risks associated with SROs combined with residual risks are less than the primary ASI risk.
Degree
M.Sc.
Advisors
Dietz, Purdue University.
Subject Area
Economics|Sociology
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