Improving tornado intensity estimates using Doppler radar
Abstract
In the United States, visual observations of tornadoes and/or the existence of tornado damage currently provide the sole evidence of tornadogenesis in association with a mesocyclone or other radar-detected storm-scale vortex. The severity of the tornado damage is currently the only means of estimating the intensity of tornadoes, radar-detected or otherwise. The limitations of the damage-based record of tornado occurrence and intensity are well-known and motivated this research. WSR-88D measurements of the translating tornadic flow were compared to (semi-) coordinated measurements obtained near the surface with mobile radar. Based on a small yet fairly broad sample of tornadoes, high linear correlation was found between the vortex intensity (rotation plus translation) quantified using Weather Surveillance Radars-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) data and that quantified using Doppler on Wheels (DOW) data. The possible effects of Doppler radar sampling on these results were explored through experiments with a simple vortex model. These experiments argued that the likelihood is high that a tornado would be sampled in a favorable way during at least one radar scan. Hence, the suggestion from this work is that WSR-88Ds (or similar operational radars) can potentially be used in isolation to estimate low-level tornado intensity. The proposed estimation is by way of a linear regression model, and application of this model is relevant only once a tornado is already confirmed.
Degree
M.S.
Advisors
Trapp, Purdue University.
Subject Area
Meteorology|Atmospheric sciences
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