Impact of environmental constraints and aircraft technology on airline fleet composition

Kushal A Moolchandani, Purdue University

Abstract

This thesis models an airline's decisions about fleet evolution in order to maintain economic and regulatory viability. The aim is to analyze the fleet evolution under different scenarios of environmental policy and technology availability in order to suggest an optimal fleet under each case. An understanding of the effect of aircraft technologies, fleet size and age distribution, and operational procedures on airline performance may improve the quality of policies to achieve environmental goals. Additionally, the effect of decisions about fleet evolution on air travel is assessed as the change in market demand and profits of an abstracted, benevolent monopolist airline. Attention to the environmental impact of aviation has grown, and this has prompted several organizations such as ICAO (and, in response, NASA) to establish emissions reduction targets to reduce aviation's global climate impact. The introduction of new technology, change in operational procedures, etc. are some of the proposed means to achieve these targets. Of these, this thesis studies the efficacy of implementation of environmental policies in form of emissions constraints as a means to achieve these goals and assesses their impact on an airline's fleet evolution and technology use (along with resulting effects on air travel demand). All studies in this thesis are conducted using the Fleet-level Environmental Evaluation Tool (FLEET), a NASA sponsored simulation tool developed at Purdue University. This tool models airline operational decisions via a resource allocation problem and uses a system dynamics type approach to mimic airline economics, their decisions regarding retirement and acquisition of aircraft and evolution of market demand in response to the economic conditions. The development of an aircraft acquisition model for FLEET is a significant contribution of the author. Further, the author conducted a study of various environmental policies using FLEET. Studies introduce constraints on maximum CO2 emissions that the airline can cause, taxes on airlines for excess emissions, and the use of biofuels. The results obtained indicate that implementation of very strict policies that place a heavy penalty on airlines for environmental inefficiency would lead to a drastic decline in market demand served as well as airline profits. For example, to achieve a 50% reduction of CO2 emissions by 2050 from the 2005 levels, the airlines would need to leave as much as 45% of predicted market demand unmet, thereby significantly reducing their profits. Taxing airlines for excess emissions would lead them to use large aircraft for short distance operations to reduce CO2 produced per seat mile, decreasing the total number of flights. Since taxation provides an economic motive for airlines to seek low emissions operations procedures, it can be an effective means of achieving emissions reduction goals. Finally the use of biofuels, under some assumption of biofuel availability and cost, helps reduce emissions without compromising market demand or airline profits.

Degree

M.S.A.A.

Advisors

DeLaurentis, Purdue University.

Subject Area

Aerospace engineering

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