Factors relating to commercial aircraft market value: a holistic view based on chaos and complexity theories
Abstract
Historically, fair market values for commercial aircraft appear to have patterns similar to those of commodity markets, fluctuating in a cyclical nature, following supply and demand factors. These are influenced by airline profits, economic indicators, and personal income, to name a few. As expressed by professional aircraft value appraisers, this recurring instability in commercial aircraft market value rates cannot be attributed to one major influencing factor, but is impacted by a dynamic market of several sources. To provide additional insight into this complex and often chaotic pricing nature, this study explored market indices and commodity prices for distinguishable correlations to commercial aircraft market values. Additional analysis was conducted to identify possible "lag time" of commodity correlations to aircraft market value, providing information for consideration in determining possible aircraft market value rates in the future. This analysis could provide supplementary information for investors, aircraft manufactures, and leasing firms in studying aircraft market values.^
Degree
M.S.
Advisors
Denver W. Lopp, Purdue University.
Subject Area
Statistics|Economics, Theory
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