Essays on duck demand in the United States: Analyzing the impacts of economic, demographic, and food safety factors on consumption

Paul Gardner Yvelin de Beville, Purdue University

Abstract

The purpose of this study was to determine the significance and magnitude of several external and internal factors to the duck industry that have been affecting consumption in the United States. In recent years bird flu outbreaks have become more frequent. As a result, consumers have been more concerned about bird meat consumption and the behavior's potential harmful effects on the bird industry and duck in particular are important and need more insight. The following study was conducted for the Maple Leaf Farms (MLF), a major producer accounting for a large share of the United States (US) duck production. The firm provided us with sales data, which we used in our econometric models to define causality effects. Because MLF represents such a dominating share in the US market, we assumed variation in their sales was representative of the variations in the market. The first model used was based on Linear Demand Functions (LDF). It enabled us to define the impacts of different variables on duck sales in food service and retail. The second model was based on consumer demand theory. A linear approximation of the Inverse Almost Ideal Demand System (IAIDS) was used to identify the effects of avian influenza outbreaks on consumer budget shares for duck, chicken, turkey, beef and pork. The study suggested important linkages between duck demand and a variety of determinants. Prices and consumer income were found to importantly affect duck consumption. Furthermore, results demonstrate that sales were seasonal, with highs in February, May, August, October, November and December, and lows during the other months of the year. Demographic characteristics such as ethnicities and urban population were found to play a role in affecting duck sales. Foreign competition was accounted for by using import data, and was found to sensibly compete with domestic producers. Regarding avian influenza, interesting outcomes were obtained as well. Negative effects on bird-meat consumption and positive spillovers on cattle and pork demands were identified. The outbreak location as well as the type of bird involved were found to be important characteristics affecting consumer behavior.

Degree

M.S.

Advisors

Wang, Purdue University.

Subject Area

Agricultural economics

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