Abstract
Current science indicates that warming and elevated atmospheric CO2 will have ambiguous results for crop productivity depending on crop type and geographic location, whereas increased heat stress makes livestock and human labor less productive. The differential impacts across regions will alter comparative advantage and shift the patterns of global trade. This paper employs an economywide trade model to assess all three types of productivity shocks under a 3°C global warming scenario. We find that the widening agricultural trade deficits persist, even as the overall US trade balance improves due to enhanced investment inflows.
Keywords
Climate-driven productivity shocks, Biophysical crop models, Staple crops, Non-food industrial commodities, US agricultural trade deficit, Global Gridded Crop Modeling Intercomparison, GTAP-AGR model
Date of this Version
11-4-2025
Recommended Citation
Fraysse, Elizabeth A.; Hertel, Thomas; and KEENEY, ROMAN m., "Climate Change Agricultural Comparative Advantage and the US Trade Balance" (2025). Department of Agricultural Economics Faculty Publications. Paper 105.
https://docs.lib.purdue.edu/agedocs/105
Comments
This is the publisher PDF of Fraysse, E. A., T. W.Hertel, and R.Keeney. 2026. “Climate Change Agricultural Comparative Advantage and the US Trade Balance.” Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy48, no. 2: 473–486. Published CC-BY by Wiley, the version of record and ADA Title II compliant version is available in HTML at DOI: 10.1002/aepp.70041.