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Abstract

This essay evaluates the on-farm financial impacts of an avian influenza outbreak on a U.S. commercial broiler operation. It investigates how the timing and length of the outbreak impacts farm financial performance for two different farmers, beginning and experienced. Results indicate that a beginning farmer is more susceptible to significant financial losses. Both farmers are financially impacted more when avian influenza is contracted early in the investment and when the contamination and eradication of the virus was prolonged. Furthermore, this essay highlights the problems of using standard financial measures for analyzing disease outbreaks under production contract arrangements and presents alternative measures for financial performance. This study provides the foundation for future research to determine actuarially fair premiums for avian influenza insurance mechanisms.

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