Investigation of climate variability and climate change impacts on corn yield in the Eastern Corn Belt, USA
The increasing demand for both food and biofuels requires more corn production at global scale. However, current corn yield is not able to meet bio-ethanol demand without jeopardizing food security or intensifying and expanding corn cultivation. An alternative solution is to utilize cellulose and hemi-cellulose from perennial grasses to fulfill the increasing demand for biofuel energy. A watershed level scenario analysis is often applied to figure out a sustainable way to strike the balance between food and fuel demands, and maintain environment integrity. However, a solid modeling application requires a clear understanding of crop responses under various climate stresses. This is especially important for evaluating future climate impacts. Therefore, correct representation of corn growth and yield projection under various climate conditions (limited or oversupplied water) is essential for quantifying the relative benefits of alternative biofuel crops. The main objective of this study is to improve the evaluation of climate variability and climate change effects on corn growth based on plant-water interaction in the Midwestern US via a modeling approach. Traditional crop modeling methods with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) are improved from many points, including introducing stress parameters under limited or oversupplied water conditions, improving seasonal crop growth simulation from imagery-based LAI information, and integrating CO2 effects on crop growth and crop-water relations. The SWAT model’s ability to represent crop responses under various climate conditions are evaluated at both plot scale, where observed soil moisture data is available and watershed scale, where direct soil moisture evaluation is not feasible. My results indicate that soil moisture evaluation is important in constraining crop water availability and thus better simulates crop responses to climate variability. Over a long term period, drought stress (limited moisture) explains the majority of yield reduction across all return periods at regional scale. Aeration stress (oversupplied water) results in higher yield decline over smaller spatial areas. Future climate change introduces more variability in drought and aeration stress, resulting in yield reduction, which cannot be compensated by positive effects brought by CO2 enhancement on crop growth. Information conveyed from this study can also provide valuable suggestions to local stakeholders for developing better watershed management plans. It helps to accurately identify climate sensitive cropland inside a watershed, which could be potential places for more climate resilient plants, like biofuel crops. This is a sustainable strategy to maintain both food/fuel provision, and mitigate the negative impact of future climate change on cash crops.
Bowling, Purdue University.
Hydrologic sciences|Agricultural engineering|Water Resource Management
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