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Abstract

Scaffold failures are a persistent safety burden driven by assembly quality variability, environmental exposure, and frequent site modifications. This study develops and validates a risk-tier inspection scheduling framework that converts routine scaffold inspection logs into interval-level predictions of critical defects. Using 950 inspection intervals from three Vietnamese regions (Northern, Middle coastal, Southern), a complementary log-log model with Elastic Net regularization predicts whether a critical defect will be detected at the next inspection. Critical events occurred in 14.21% of intervals. The model achieves strong discrimination (ROC-AUC = 0.995, AP = 0.984, Brier = 0.018); at the operating threshold, Precision = 1.000 and Recall = 0.874. Defect-history counts dominate feature importance, followed by configuration severity (height), consistent with scaffold reliability mechanisms. The framework supports auditable, risk-adaptive scheduling.

Keywords

scaffold safety, defect risk, inspection interval, Elastic Net, hazard modeling, standards and policy, Vietnam construction

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