Description
The aim of the paper is to analyse the occurrence and intensity of threats to Natural World Heritage Sites from climate change as assessed by IUCN experts. The data comes from the Conservation Outlook Assessment database, which covers 250 sites for three time periods (2014, 2017 and 2020). The threat of climate change is broadly defined and includes temperature extremes, rapidly disappearing glaciers, coral bleaching, droughts, desertification, rising temperatures and rising sea levels. Simultaneous probit and ordered models with individual site effects are used to analyse the occurrence and intensity of both a perceived actual and a potential threat.
The estimates show that both the occurrence of a current climate change threat and its intensity increase significantly over time when site characteristics and location are taken into account. An important finding of the study is that the likelihood of a climate change threat not only increases over time, but also depends on the type and characteristics of the location. The probability of a current climate threat is highest in marine and coastal areas and lowest in desert areas. The probability of an actual climate threat is significantly lower for locations in Africa, while the probability of a potential climate threat is highest in Latin America.
Keywords: Climate Change, threats, expert assessment, marine and coastal sites, Natural World Heritage sites, Probit and ordered probit model.
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Threats from climate change are increasing for Natural World Heritage Sites
The aim of the paper is to analyse the occurrence and intensity of threats to Natural World Heritage Sites from climate change as assessed by IUCN experts. The data comes from the Conservation Outlook Assessment database, which covers 250 sites for three time periods (2014, 2017 and 2020). The threat of climate change is broadly defined and includes temperature extremes, rapidly disappearing glaciers, coral bleaching, droughts, desertification, rising temperatures and rising sea levels. Simultaneous probit and ordered models with individual site effects are used to analyse the occurrence and intensity of both a perceived actual and a potential threat.
The estimates show that both the occurrence of a current climate change threat and its intensity increase significantly over time when site characteristics and location are taken into account. An important finding of the study is that the likelihood of a climate change threat not only increases over time, but also depends on the type and characteristics of the location. The probability of a current climate threat is highest in marine and coastal areas and lowest in desert areas. The probability of an actual climate threat is significantly lower for locations in Africa, while the probability of a potential climate threat is highest in Latin America.
Keywords: Climate Change, threats, expert assessment, marine and coastal sites, Natural World Heritage sites, Probit and ordered probit model.