Policy applications of a highly resolved spatial and temporal onroad carbon dioxide emissions data product for the U.S.: Analyses and their implications for mitigation
Abstract
Onroad CO2 emissions were analyzed as part of overall GHG emissions, but those studies have suffered from one or more of these five shortcomings: 1) the spatial resolution was coarse, usually encompassing a region, or the entire U.S.; 2) the temporal resolution was coarse (annual or monthly); 3) the study region was limited, usually a metropolitan planning organization (MPO) or state; 4) fuel sales were used as a proxy to quantify fuel consumption instead of focusing on travel; 5) the spatial heterogeneity of fleet and road network composition was not considered and instead national averages are used. Normalized vehicle-type state-level spatial biases range from 2.6% to 8.1%, while the road type classification biases range from -6.3% to 16.8%. These biases are found to cause errors in reduction estimates as large as ±60%, corresponding to ±0.2 MtC, for a national-average emissions mitigation strategy focused on a 10% emissions reduction from a single vehicle class. Temporal analysis shows distinct emissions seasonality that is particularly visible in the northernmost latitudes, demonstrating peak-to-peak deviations from the annual mean of up to 50%. The hourly structure shows peak-to-peak deviation from a weekly average of up to 200% for heavy-duty (HD) vehicles and 140% for light-duty (LD) vehicles. The present study focuses on reduction of travel and fuel economy improvements by putting forth several mitigation scenarios aimed at reducing VMT and increasing vehicle fuel efficiency. It was found that the most effective independent reduction strategies are those that increase fuel efficiency by extending standards proposed by the corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) or reduction of fuel consumption due to price increases. These two strategies show cumulative emissions reductions of approximately 11% and 12%, respectively, from a business as usual (BAU) approach over the 2000-2050 period. The U.S. onroad transportation sector is long overdue a comprehensive study of CO2 emissions at a highly resolved level. Such a study would improve fossil fuel flux products by enhancing measurement accuracy and prompt location-specific mitigation policy. The carbon cycle science and policymaking communities are both poised to benefit greatly from the development of a highly resolved spatiotemporal emissions product.
Degree
Ph.D.
Advisors
Shepson, Purdue University.
Subject Area
Atmospheric sciences
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