Corn-to-ethanol dry mill plants: Economic evaluation of technology and location choice
Abstract
Critical factors that determine whether a plant can weather the current volatile economic climate and be profitable in the long run are strategic location based on acquiring low-cost inputs and marketing high value outputs and the choice of technology that impacts operating cost and mix of byproducts produced. The overall objective of this research was to provide information regarding the profitability of alternative location and technology choices for ethanol plants, which will depend upon the economic value of the resulting byproducts. The research considers four alternative technologies including conventional corn refining with DDGS byproduct, upfront fractionation with alternative byproducts, and back-end separation of the corn oil. The fractionation and separation technologies are more expensive than the conventional technology but produce byproducts of greater value. The research also considers plant location decisions near corn markets, near cattle feed markets for the byproducts, and near ethanol product markets (east and west coasts) called destination markets. This research also considered feeding the byproduct wet instead of dried to save processing energy. Plant locations in Iowa, Texas, New York, and California were evaluated with the different byproduct and technology options. Results from feed ration models that were set up to impute the value of byproducts as feed ingredients in swine diets showed that fractionated byproducts can be utilized in swine diets at very low inclusion levels compared to conventional byproducts due to their poor amino acid balance. At low inclusion levels, FracDDGS can be priced higher than the competitive feed ingredients without increasing total diet cost. This is primarily due to its ability to be a better potential replacement for SBM, a more expensive feed ingredient in swine diets. The results from the ethanol plant models revealed that as long as increased revenue from higher priced byproducts offsets the higher production cost, the new technology should increase net revenue for the ethanol plant producers. Depending on locations, the NPVs from finance-based analysis after tax improved by $0.96 to $1.31 per gallon if the plant utilizes the fractionation technology that produces germ for food-grade corn oil versus the conventional technology. Across locations, the price of corn germ for oil would have to drop by around 40% to 47% for the second best technology, back-end corn oil extraction technology, and the fractionation technology to generate identical NPVs. Profitability ranking across locations shows that New York plant is the most profitable followed by Texas and then Iowa, due to higher priced byproducts in the region. California is the least profitable location because of the high corn cost in the region. Depending on locations, the NPVs from finance-based analysis after tax improved by 28-32 cents per gallon if plant produces 100% wet versus 100% dry distillers grains.
Degree
Ph.D.
Advisors
Preckel, Purdue University.
Subject Area
Agricultural economics
Off-Campus Purdue Users:
To access this dissertation, please log in to our
proxy server.