Commercial airline aircraft ground damage: An analysis model for predicting future incidents using chaos theory and emergence patterns

Jennifer C Sloane, Purdue University

Abstract

Each year, airlines experience ground incidents that result in aircraft damage. Some of these incidents may be minor while others result in high repair costs and delay. Numerous factors can cause incidents including human error, complacencies, lack of training, procedures, time constraints, weather, time of year and distractions. Historically, airlines have seen increases and decreases in the amount of incidents per month and year. Each airline can track its own incident causes and trends. To better understand the cycles of the industry as a whole, past data can be analyzed for multiple airlines to find patterns. Two major United States air carriers will be in the scope, one of which was included in a previous study. Using data as far back as provided, graphical depictions will show each airline's incident patterns along with any relations among the two. The Chaos Theory will be used to assess emergence patterns and evaluate if relationships exist. This study acts as an industry indicator as to when incident levels are too high and how to be better prepared. ^

Degree

M.S.

Advisors

Denver W. Lopp, Purdue University.

Subject Area

Business Administration, General|Transportation|Operations Research

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